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Affected by the global financial crisis, market demand has fallen and prices have fallen. The two major pillar industries in Shanxi, the energy province, coal and coking, are facing severe challenges.
Coking: Limit production insured "flag hoist"
In addition to limiting production by more than 60%, coke ovens in coke ovens in Shanxi Province have been continuously extended in coking time, and some have been extended from the original 18 hours to more than 70 hours. The coke produced is basically scrapped. Even so, the province's enterprises have up to 7 million tons of stocks in October, 5 million tons of port inventory, and there is a backlog of coke; and the coke payment arrears also reached 10 billion yuan, individual coking enterprises were forced to stop the furnace.
Since September, foreign orders have plummeted, and it is expected that China's annual coke export volume will be 12 million tons, a drop of about 20%. According to the recent price of raw materials and sales prices of coke, Shanxi's coking enterprises still achieved a ton loss of 300 to 500 yuan per ton.
Now, what is the difficulty of a coking enterprise?
Zhang Yue, chairman of the Shanxi Coke Group, stated that taking a large coking plant as an example, the annual output of coke is about 2.3 million tons. After limiting production by 50% in September, the company lost 60 million yuan in the same month. The coal tar processing plant, the methanol plant, and the The urea plant was completely shut down, and it lost 70 million yuan in October.
"It is expected that the difficult situation will continue into the first quarter of next year, coke prices will be able to fall to the bottom, the market situation in the second quarter will be improved, the price will stabilize, the city will be significantly improved in the third quarter, to the fourth quarter, the coke market will improve, prices rise Coking enterprises will earn 50 yuan per ton of profit, and the whole industry will turn losses into profits," said Zhang Yue.
In the face of the difficult situation, Shanxi Province Coking Group and Shanxi Coking Industry Association together took a series of measures.
The first is to organize coke production companies to hold high the “limit production†banner to reduce losses. All member companies are required to limit the rate of production to more than 60%, and encourage enterprises to protect production in order to reverse the supply and demand of the coke market as soon as possible.
The second is to organize large-scale coking enterprises to implement joint sales and prohibit price dumping and disrupt the market.
The third is to establish a price coordination mechanism with the major users, the iron and steel enterprises. The two sides regularly hold monthly regular meetings to study and formulate market guidance prices, play the role of key coking and iron and steel enterprises in the market, stabilize the market and stabilize prices. At present, the Shanxi Coking Industry Association has established this mechanism with major steel users in North China.
The fourth is to guide enterprises to avoid operating risks, strengthen management, promote energy-saving emission reduction, and reduce costs.
Coal: Falling prices in case of "cold stream"
In contrast to the "singing up" of coal prices in the first half of the year, Shanxi coal after September has inevitably encountered the "cold stream" of price cuts.
Shanxi Provincial Development and Reform Commission pointed out that after entering July, coal production in the province began to decline, and there was a “negative growth†in October, a decline of more than 10%. At the same time, after prices peaked in August, coal varieties began to decline, of which coking coal fell the most, thermal coal fell significantly, and anthracite coal basically stabilized slightly.
A person in charge of a large coal group in Shanxi said that due to the sharp drop in steel prices, the price of metallurgically injected coal fell by 300 yuan. It is still difficult to sell. At present, they are beginning to limit the production of metallurgical coal and switch to coal sales, and the price will drop by 50%. Coal for chemical use is still maintained, but it is estimated that sales will be reduced by 1/3 by the end of the year.
"The reduction in demand and the drop in coal prices have led to difficulties in the extension of coal, electricity, coal, and Other extended industries of the group companies. This chain reaction has hit hard, and it is estimated that it will encounter much more difficulties than it did between 1998 and 2000." People worry about it.
Shanxi Coking Coal Group, the largest domestic main coking coal producer, had previously lowered the price of its main coking coal by 30%, which is about 500 to 650 yuan per ton. The person in charge of the company stated that many steel companies are still demanding price cuts. We must limit the price of insured products and maintain the price of main coking coal at around RMB 1,000/t at the beginning of the year.
Since September, the coal economic operation in Shanxi has witnessed a decline in production and sales volume and an increase in the amount of coal money owed to it. In September, the province’s sales volume was 43.24 million tons, a decrease of 6.51 million tons from the previous month and a month-on-month decline of 13%. In October, the sales volume of the province’s provinces decreased by 2.38 million tons from the previous month, a decrease of 5.5% from the previous month; the province’s coal accounts receivable at the end of September The amount has increased to 4.22 billion yuan, an increase of 2.593 billion yuan over the end of June.
Avoid "reinvent the wheel" and plan for long-term development. As the saying goes, "It's better to forget the pain," and the last "winter" between coal and coke is not far away.
Due to the overcapacity caused by disorderly development, the Shanxi Coking Industry experienced the “severe winter†of “oversupply, market competition, and price reduction†as early as the middle and late 1990s, and the industry suffered serious losses; after entering 2003, Driven by the market, a new round of coke construction boom has started. Although the elimination of soil coke and improved coke has helped support large coke and backward production capacity has been greatly reduced, the current coke production capacity is still as high as 150 million tons.
For a time, under the impetus of good market conditions, not only independent coking enterprises are keen to build large-scale coke ovens, but also self-built large-scale coke ovens have become a common practice for iron and steel companies. Some coal companies that have resources are also involved, and some have already built up. Millions of tons of coking park. While bid farewell to the low-level redundant construction, the "high-level redundant construction" of the domestic coking industry has risen, and overcapacity still shrouds the industry.
In the context of the current shrinking market demand and declining prices, the "diseases" of excess coke production capacity and disorderly competition are again exposed.
In the late 1990s, the coal industry fell into a "low valley" and entered the "severe winter." At that time, the coal mines were full of coal, and some of them caused spontaneous combustion. Even though the coal mines were finding ways to sell their products, they even refused to sell their liquor for sale. However, coal was still difficult to sell; even if it was sold, coal was also heavily delinquent. The bad debts have not yet been cleared.
After profoundly learning the lessons of history, the coal and coking industries in Shanxi Province have now adopted a more rational countermeasure, recognizing the principle that “price reduction cannot stimulate demand, and can't increase profitabilityâ€. It is determined to limit the price of insurance and control prices. At the same time as the decline, we must strictly control the total amount, “set the sales according to the need of efficiency, and set the output by sales†to ensure that supply and demand are tightly balanced.
Experts in the industry pointed out that both industries of coal and coke are facing pressures to eliminate backwardness, energy conservation, emission reduction and industrial upgrading. They should seize this opportunity, turn “danger†into an “opportunityâ€, and enhance industrial quality and corporate anti-risk capabilities.
At present, there are more than 270 coking companies in Shanxi, mostly independent coking enterprises. Zhang Yue suggested that the government should continue to increase the coking industry's liquidation and rectification, while optimizing industrial policies, suspending the approval of new coking projects; encouraging "steel coke joint", "coal co-operation", extending the industrial chain, and promoting the implementation of "big enterprises" , large group "strategy, nurture large-scale coking enterprise groups.
The person in charge of the Shanxi Coal Industry Bureau stated that the coal industry will continue to increase the elimination of backward production capacity, vigorously promote the implementation of reorganization and integration, and strive to increase industrial concentration. By the end of 2010, the number of mines in the province will exceed 2,800. Above 5%, it will be controlled within 1500; coal mines will be scaled to over 3 million tons/year, forming 2-3 large-scale coal enterprise groups with an annual production capacity of 100 million tons, and 3 to 5 annual production capacity of 50 million tons or more. The large-scale conglomerates have produced more than 75% of the total output of the province's total coal production.
In July, it was still a high price of more than 3,000 yuan, and it has now dropped to 1,200 yuan. At present, the entire industry in Shanxi Coking Industry is losing money, the limited production rate has reached more than 60%, and some small enterprises have stopped production. Among the various types of coal in Shanxi Province, the price of coking coal with the largest price cut fell by 44% in August compared with August, and thermal coal declined by more than 20%.