Zhu Xianglei, Director of Data Application and Research Department of the China Automotive Technology and Research Center Data Center, spoke at the award ceremony of the “Low-Carbon 2014 Pioneer Festival for Commercial Vehicles in Chinaâ€, stating that low-carbon is a constant trend in the development of commercial vehicles in China. Â
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According to data from the “2013 Annual Report of China’s Motor Vehicle Pollution Prevention and Control†issued by the Ministry of Environmental Protection, China’s truck market at the end of 2012 was 18.944 million units, which accounted for 17.5% of the total vehicle population. Contributions to CO, HC, NOx, and PM pollutants were respectively It accounts for 35.9%, 42.8%, 67.5%, and 78.6% of the total vehicle pollutant emissions. Judging from these data, the road for truck emission control has a long way to go. This leads to the first problem. Although the truck has a small quantity, it has a large contribution to emissions and brings about emission control problems.
Judging from the fuel consumption of cars measured by the Data Center of the China National Automobile Group, the consumption of gasoline in China was 75.86 million tons in 2012, accounting for 86.9% of the total consumption of social gasoline; the consumption of automobile diesel was 81.02 million tons, accounting for the consumption of social diesel. 47.7% of the total. From the perspective of subdivision models, gasoline consumption of trucks is low, accounting for 4.5% of car consumption, but diesel consumption is relatively large, accounting for 73.9% of car consumption. Therefore, the potential for energy saving and the tasks of trucks, especially heavy trucks, are huge. of. This leads to the second problem, as the rapid increase in car ownership, resulting in increased vehicle fuel consumption, making the fuel gap further increase. According to the collated research data, since 2000, China’s oil dependence on foreign countries has steadily increased, which poses a challenge to China’s energy security.
For the theme of "low carbon", I think there are two levels of meaning. The first is energy saving, which is how much it actually uses. The second is emission reduction, which is the issue of carbon emissions in vehicle exhaust emissions. Based on the market forecast model of the China National Automobile Industry Center, forecasting the truck market size from 2015 to 2025, we can see that the overall scale of truck sales in the future will not change too much, but the internal structure will be significantly different, which makes the corresponding The issue of emissions and energy consumption is even more prominent. In this context, how can the government guide? How will the company respond?
The government must use policies to encourage new energy vehicles
Judging from the introduction of policies, the government's management of trucks is mainly centered on the two main lines of “low-carbon†and “environmental protectionâ€. Five types of policies have been specifically proposed. First, emission upgrades; second, old cars are being renewed; thirdly, yellow standard car management; fourth, car fuel consumption standards; and fifth, new energy car incentives.
First of all, we will look at the emission upgrade policy. In 2015, whether the heavy trucks or light trucks must implement the National Five Standards, this will bring a lot of pressure to consumers and businesses, but it will be of great benefit for energy conservation and emission reduction. Followed by the old policy of renewal of old cars, due to the relatively low reimbursement of old cars, the impact on the market is relatively small. Again, the yellow label car elimination policy, yellow label car as a high emission, high energy consumption models, the past two years is also the focus of the government's elimination, the elimination of yellow label car is conducive to energy-saving emission reduction of commercial vehicles, in 2014 plans to phase out 6 million In 2015, 5 million vehicles will be phased out. This has a significant impact on the energy conservation and environmental protection of commercial vehicles and the development of the commercial vehicle market. The fourth is the fuel consumption standard. Currently, the fuel consumption standards for passenger vehicles and commercial vehicles are steadily upgrading. The fifth is the new energy vehicle promotion policy. During the implementation of the policy, government subsidies need to be used to encourage purchase, and market-oriented guidance is adopted. By promoting new energy commercial vehicles, the tail gas emissions and fuel consumption brought by traditional energy vehicles will be reduced, and commercialization will be promoted. Car energy-saving and emission reduction.
Enterprises must adopt more energy-saving and environmental protection technologies
Under the dual pressure of environmental protection and energy crisis, the truck market is responding to these pressures through the promotion of new energy, alternative energy trucks, and the application of energy-saving and environmental protection technologies. With the successive release of policies such as the use cost, purchase cost, breaking of regional monopoly, and development of promotion targets, policy promotion has become an important factor in the development of new energy trucks in the future. From the perspective of current R&D of new energy automotive products of some companies, some companies have developed new energy products for urban sanitation vehicles and logistics vehicles, and will be marketized and promoted next year. According to the follow-up research on the natural gas vehicle market, with the promotion of policies, gas cost advantages, and acceleration of the deployment of gas stations, the natural gas truck market has been developing rapidly since 2011. At present, the development of natural gas passenger vehicles is better, and the next step is natural gas trucks. It will also achieve better development, and the future development of natural gas trucks will be dominated by heavy trucks. As the expansion of gas filling facilities from energy-intensive areas to other regions began, the area of ​​natural gas heavy truck demand has developed from the traditional northwest and north China energy-rich regions to the southeast region.
In addition, companies can also use lightweight vehicles to design, material selection, manufacturing and other means to achieve vehicle weight reduction, and then reduce vehicle fuel consumption to achieve energy-saving purposes.
Focus on improving fuel economy
In the future, when the number of trucks remains basically stable, the competition among enterprises will inevitably increase. In the statistics of the use of fuel for commercial vehicles, the fuel use cost generally accounts for 40% to 60% of the total cost of use, so individuals It is believed that truck companies can quickly increase the competitiveness of their products while increasing the fuel economy of vehicles. I hope that companies can consider two issues in the future. First, because trucks have different types of cargo, there is a big difference in the quality of the trucks. How can we improve the fuel economy under the commonly used load quality? Second, because of the different operating conditions of trucks, there is a big difference in the speed of operation. How can we improve the fuel economy at the common speed?
