New Energy "Attractive": Wind Power Warring States Nuclear Power Seeking Little Giants (3)

The big business of selling solar shovels on September 21st, 2010: The Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Science and Technology, the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, and the Energy Administration issued the Notice on Strengthening the Construction and Management of the Golden Sun Demonstration Project and the Application of Solar Photovoltaic Building Demonstration Projects. The contents of the Golden Sun Project and the Solar Optoelectronic Building Policy that were introduced in 2009 have been adjusted to extend the supported areas from remote areas to coastal areas, and support projects are also more inclined to large-scale projects.

This is quite meaningful for the Chinese polysilicon industry, which basically depends on foreign demand.

In 2009, the global installed capacity of solar energy was 7.2GW, of which Germany alone reached 3.8GW, which accounted for half of the global market. Following the rankings are Italy, the Czech Republic, Belgium and France.

For the current polysilicon projects with the most domestic solar power, they are also experiencing rollercoaster rides.

In 2008, when the price of polysilicon was the most mad, its price once reached 400-500 US dollars/kg, but it quickly fell and fell to 40-50 US dollars/kg.

However, since the second half of 2010, the price of polysilicon has gradually come out of the bottom, rising to the current 100 US dollars / kg.

However, the shadow of excess capacity in the polysilicon industry has been lingering.

“I personally think that chemical polysilicon will have a bad time in the future. Because most of their technologies are imitations, many production lines are also put together. For example, the former is a team of the United States, the middle is the Russian technology, and the result is the product line. Unable to get through, claiming that there is a production capacity of 10,000 tons, in fact may only play 20%.” The above PE person told reporters.

In its view, in the field of new energy, "equipment and materials are the most worth investing, and new industries are first investment equipment, not the first investment. Equipment and new energy is the relationship between shovels and gold diggers. Half of the investment is As soon as the equipment is put into use, equipment and equipment will be purchased after further research and development and technological upgrading."

“Even if the industry does not exist at the end, like corn does ethanol, equipment manufacturers still earn money.”

On the other hand, “the company that manufactures equipment and the company that engages in the production of products are in business relations. He knows best what is really talented and can touch things inside the industry. These companies will tell the truth to equipment manufacturers. Nothing can be done, but it is not necessarily for external investors."

In accordance with this logic, equipment manufacturers include Seiko Technology, which began production of polysilicon ingot furnaces in 2007. A brokerage research institute called it "the selling shovel man in solar energy gold fever."

On October 11, 2010, Seiko Technology announced that it had signed a contract with Jiangsu Xiexin Silicon Material Technology Development Co., Ltd. to provide the company with 52 sets of polysilicon ingot furnaces and related auxiliary equipment.

According to the semi-annual report of 2010, solar photovoltaic equipment contributed an operating profit of RMB 27.97 million to listed companies, and the gross profit rate of products was as high as 35.98%. All of the company's six major industries ranked first.

In addition, photothermal is another development direction of solar energy besides photovoltaic.

“The technical path is very important for light and heat investment because light and heat technology is monopolized by Israel. If you see a project that is coming from the United States, you have to be very careful.” After a light and heat project in Zhejiang, the backing party has the U.S. Department of Energy. It is a group of Chinese people. “I didn’t look at it because light and heat technologies are all in Israel. U.S. technology is probably a semi-finished product. Take technical risks."

However, only a handful of A-share listed companies currently cover the heat. Great Wall Securities stated in its report that it should pay attention to two types of enterprises. One is the research and development and project construction of CSP systems, such as Tianwei Group and Sanhua. Both companies have started to plan for the CSP project. Work; the other is the manufacturer of core materials and equipment related to CSP, including the development of Stirling solar engine aerodynamics and the scale of production of solar glass Jin Jing Technology.

UHV and Smart Grid: The State Grid Corporation of China is the result of the bidding of the State Grid Corporation of China as the wind vane of the smart grid sector.

“The problems faced by the energy conservation and emission reduction in the electric power field are the line loss, which is the loss of the electricity sent from the line; the second is the loss of the load. The electricity from the night can't be used, but the unit cannot stop; the third is the thermal power. The problem of efficiency."

UHV and smart grid are two paths to solve the above problems.

Although the State Grid is facing a lot of controversy on pushing the UHV, its intention to push forward has remained unchanged.

“The line loss rate in China is the highest in the world because of its vast geographical area and uneven distribution of power generation resources. China’s online loss is 7%, and 100 billion yuan a year. The load loss is about 200 billion yuan a year.” Told reporters.

For listed companies participating in the smart grid and UHV sectors, the National Grid’s every move is related to the distribution of its interests.

According to the calculation of Ping An Securities, the construction of UHV transmission grids will bring about 220 billion yuan in power equipment demand before 2015. Smart grids are the focus of smart grid construction and will bring in more than 620 billion yuan worth of equipment market capacity, of which the smart electricity market accounts for nearly 50%.

According to Ping An Securities, we follow the principles of "arbitrary and special". The so-called "arbitrage" means: high market share, high industry concentration, and high gross profit level. The so-called "specialized" means that the business has a high degree of correlation with the smart grid, outstanding technical advantages, and comprehensive ability to provide solutions.

The relationship between the listed company and the national grid may help it to compete in many bidding companies.

Take XJ Electric as an example, the company is the most complete company in the domestic power equipment industry chain, and its controlling shareholder XJ Group has been in a leading position in the field of DC converter valves with a market share of nearly 40%.

More importantly, in February 2010, the State Grid Corporation of China completed the acquisition of XJ Group. The market has many imaginations for the overall listing of XJ Group.