Regional analysis of new energy vehicle market and forecast of investment prospects

Summary of China's new energy vehicle industry development, new energy vehicle industry chain, world new energy vehicle industry development, China's new energy vehicle industry development, new energy vehicle business model, new energy vehicle industry market segment, new Key areas of the energy auto industry, the operation of major energy vehicles, the investment opportunities of new energy auto industry under the Internet environment, investment and financing of new energy vehicles and prospects, and the development strategy of new energy vehicles. At the same time, Zuozhi has comprehensive and detailed first-hand market data in the past five years, allowing you to comprehensively and accurately grasp the market trend and development trend of the entire new energy auto industry, so as to win the opportunity in the competition!

01. China's new energy auto industry

Development analysis

1. Analysis of the operation situation of China's new energy vehicles

Analysis of production and sales of new energy automobile industry

(I) Analysis of production and sales scale of new energy vehicles

From 2010 to 2015, the scale of production and sales of new energy vehicles in China has increased year by year, and the growth rate is relatively fast. In 2015, the production and sales of new energy vehicles reached 340,471 and 331,092 vehicles, an increase of 3.3 times and 3.4 times respectively. From January to July 2016, new energy vehicles produced and sold 215,000 vehicles and 207,000 vehicles, an increase of 119.8% and 122.8% year-on-year.

(II) Analysis of the production and sales rate of new energy vehicles

In 2010-2016, the production and sales rate of new energy vehicles in China showed volatility, ranging from 95% to 102%. In 2015, the production and sales rate of new energy vehicles in China was 97.24%, an increase of 1.95 percentage points compared with the previous year. From January to July 2016, the production and sales rate of new energy vehicles decreased by 96.28%, a decrease of 0.96 percentage points compared with the end of 2015.

(III) Analysis of the scale of production and sales of electric vehicles

From 2011 to 2015, the scale of production and sales of pure electric vehicles in China has increased significantly. In 2015, pure electric vehicles produced 254,633 vehicles and 247,482 vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 4.2 times and 4.5 times. From January to July 2016, the production and sales of pure electric vehicles reached 162,000 and 153,000, an increase of 156.4% and 160.9%.

Analysis of the application of new energy automobile market

Judging from the current development of the new energy vehicle market, the new energy bus used in the public transportation system has become the “pioneer” of new energy vehicles, while the private new energy vehicle market has started slowly. The rapid development of the new energy bus market is mainly due to the increased awareness of environmental protection among local governments and increased support for new energy public transport. At the same time, compared with private new energy vehicles, new energy buses and related facilities The lower requirements have also promoted the promotion and application of new energy buses.

2. Development status of new energy automobile industry alliance

Analysis on the Development Status of Beijing New Energy Automobile Industry Alliance

The Ministry of Science and Technology and the Beijing Municipal Government jointly awarded the “Beijing New Energy Automobile Design and Manufacturing Industry Base” plaque to Beiqi Foton Motor Co., Ltd., and agreed to establish the “Beijing New Energy Automobile Industry Alliance” on December 28, 2008 by Beijing Automotive Holding Co., Ltd. ".

Analysis on the Development Status of New Energy Automobile Industry Alliance in Jilin Province

Jilin Province officially established the Jilin Province New Energy Automobile Industry Alliance on December 18, 2009. The alliance is led by FAW Group and consists of 23 research and production units such as Jilin University.

Analysis on the Development Status of Chongqing Energy Saving and New Energy Automobile Industry Alliance

The Chongqing Energy Conservation and New Energy Automobile Industry Alliance was announced on June 2, 2009. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Science and Technology, and relevant leaders of Chongqing attended the ceremony. The alliance takes Changan Automobile as the leader and absorbs nearly 30 companies including R&D, design, manufacturing, parts supply, process equipment manufacturing, infrastructure construction and end users in the new energy automobile industry chain.

Analysis on the Development Status of Industry, Education and Research Innovation Alliance of Electric Vehicles in Guangdong Province

Guangdong Province Electric Vehicles Provincial Department of Industry, Education and Research Innovation Alliance was established in Foshan, Guangdong Province on July 17, 2009. The alliance was led by Guangzhou Automobile Group, and Guangzhou Automobile Group, South China University of Technology, and Zhongshan University jointly launched the electric system in Guangdong Province. Automobile manufacturing enterprises and related parts manufacturing enterprises, as well as domestic and even domestic universities and research institutions.

02, China's new energy vehicles

Business model analysis

1. Analysis of new energy vehicle business model

Vehicle and battery bundled sales

This mode needs to come from charging. This mode, in addition to the battery technology requirements of self-charging, also requires standardization management. It originated from the West and gave the Chinese a concept: every household has a power supply, and each has a garage. It is not open at night during the day, so it is enough to find the power supply. This model is the first in the West to think about the development of electric vehicles. At present, no country has successfully commercialized it, and China has already applied it in this model.

Analysis of vehicle rental mode

Electric vehicle rental is developed from the rental business model of fuel vehicles. This model is recognized by many OEMs. Vehicle manufacturers generally believe that electric vehicle leasing can circumvent many problems that have not yet been resolved in the policy and technology fields, and is a shortcut for electric vehicles to enter the civilian market. There are already many automotive companies in China that have tried the business model of vehicle rental.

Bare Car Sales & Battery Leasing

The model of bare car sales and battery rental is compatible with charging and replacement. This model is gradually supported and valued by domestic scholars and relevant departments. It is considered as a system solution, taking into account the interests of all parties, and the implementation success is relatively large. . It is predicted that its price is lower than that of the traditional car, and the convenience of use is equal to that of the traditional car. Its 100-kilometer electricity fee is better than the 100-kilometer oil fee. At present, this model has been applied in the Shenzhen public transport system. In addition, Jiangsu Province has also vigorously promoted this model during the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan” period.

2. Comparative analysis of BYD and Tesla business models

BYD business model analysis

As far as product positioning is concerned, BYD's electric vehicles are mainly targeted at mass consumers. BYD's initial stage chose to enter the public transportation sector. In the electrification of public transportation, BYD adopted the combination of K9 and E6, which is the bus electric bus plus electric taxi, and implemented the bus priority strategy. The specific practices include three modes: the establishment of a taxi joint venture company, the “zero yuan bus”, and the establishment of a factory in a different place.

Tesla Business Model Analysis

At the beginning, Tesla was mainly positioned in the high-end market. According to Tesla's model development plan, the first stage will launch a luxury pure electric vehicle with a price of about 100,000 US dollars; the second stage will launch a ModelS model with an annual output of 20,000 units and a price of 70,000 US dollars; The stage is to enter the popularization period and launch an ordinary family car with a price of close to the people, with an estimated annual production of 500,000 units.

Due to the high cost of electric vehicle lithium batteries, compared with ordinary fuel vehicles, certain subsidies are needed to promote them on a large scale. Therefore, Tesla first focuses on the luxury car market, attracting environmentally conscious through environmental protection concepts and brands. High-income people and celebrities, especially young talents in Silicon Valley and Hollywood stars – this is also the user orientation of the early Tesla Roadster and the current ModelS sports car.

　 03, China's new energy vehicles

Market segment analysis

1. Analysis of China's hybrid vehicle market

Analysis of China's hybrid vehicle market

(I) Analysis of production and sales scale of hybrid vehicles

According to incomplete statistics, in 2014, the production and sales of plug-in hybrid vehicles were 29,894 and 29,715 respectively. In 2015, the production and sales of plug-in hybrid vehicles were 85,583 and 83,610 respectively, an increase of 1.87 times and 1.81 times respectively over the previous year. Overall, the market performance of hybrid vehicles in China is very bright in 2015.

(II) Analysis of the structure of hybrid vehicle market

From the perspective of market structure, in the Chinese hybrid vehicle passenger car market, the number of car models has increased rapidly, and sales growth rate is faster than SUV. With the rapid increase in the purchase of large orders in the bus sector, the growth rate of passenger cars is also very fast.

(III) Analysis of the application structure of hybrid vehicles

From the perspective of application structure, private cars have maintained a high growth rate driven by the growth of SUVs, occupying the largest market share, reaching 55.6%, and the growth rate remained stable. Sales of public transportation hybrid vehicles grew rapidly, reaching 214.3%, and the market share increased by 41.4%. Emerging markets such as government cars and corporate vehicles have started, and sales growth has exploded.

(IV) Analysis of competition in hybrid vehicle market

Because Toyota has obvious advantages in the field of hybrid vehicles, and has entered the field of new energy passenger vehicles in China, it has the first advantage in the market. At present, in the Chinese hybrid vehicle passenger car market, imported cars and joint-venture cars have become the main market players; at the same time, local manufacturers have also actively followed up, hybrid vehicle industrialization has been successful, some models have been approved by the National Development and Reform Commission, and market competition is Gradually intensified.

China Hybrid Vehicle Market Forecast

The Ministry of Science and Technology has been leading the promotion and application of pure electric vehicles in China, but in fact, it is still difficult to cross the stage of hybrid power in the development of new energy vehicles . Although there are a lot of new energy technologies in the market, from a practical point of view, within ten years, the most likely to spread is still hybrid technology.

2. Analysis of China's pure electric vehicle market

Analysis of the development bottleneck of pure electric vehicles

(1) The technical standards of pure electric vehicles are missing

At present, for the development of the domestic electric vehicle industry, the development of key components such as batteries, motors, and electronic controls is still a technical difficulty. Domestic enterprises should increase technology research and development and reserves. However, due to the lack of standards, many companies are full of enthusiasm but lack of confidence. China's national standard for pure electric vehicles has not yet been introduced, which means that auto companies currently have a certain "temporary" for the development of pure electric vehicles. After the introduction of standards, some practices may need to be revised.

(2) Imperfect supporting policies for pure electric vehicles

Although new energy vehicles have become one of the country's seven strategic emerging industries, the development strategy of new energy vehicles formulated by the state needs to be further clarified. It is necessary to speed up the formulation of nationally unified industrial standards so that enterprises can formulate their own product standards according to national standards. . Therefore, the state should formulate corresponding industrial development promotion policies and encourage enterprises to increase research and development and investment in new products.

(3) Imperfect supporting facilities for pure electric vehicles

The large-scale development of pure electric vehicle supporting facilities must be based on perfect supporting facilities. At present, due to imperfect charging equipment and systems, the market still has a wait-and-see attitude toward pure electric vehicles.

Prospects for the development of pure electric vehicles

In the city public buses and private small cars, priority will be given to the development of "pure electric drive" electric vehicles, and then gradually develop from the two ends to the middle, forming a "two-headed" pattern, launching a large-scale market, and rolling development, gradually occupying the middle and high-end This market space for fuel cars. The first phase is 2008-2010, the second phase is 2010-2015, and the third phase is 2015-2020.

04, China New Energy Vehicle

Key area analysis

1. Analysis of Beijing New Energy Automobile Market

Beijing New Energy Vehicle Development Policy Plan

Since 2001, Beijing High-Tech Planning has proposed a new high-power ground charging station in the field of new battery charging equipment. The “Beijing Municipal Development and New Energy Industry Implementation Plan” proposed a comprehensive plan, researched and formulated standards and specifications for charging and replacing devices, and accelerated the construction of new energy vehicle supporting infrastructure. The first electric vehicle charging station was built at the end of June in the space bridge. In 2010, it is planned to build and put into operation 120 electric vehicle charging piles.

Forecast Analysis of Beijing New Energy Vehicle Demand

Beijing's open and high-quality market environment has attracted more electric vehicle companies, high-quality products, advanced technology, and high-quality services. In addition, the government's large subsidy policy and gradually improved charging network have met the common consumers for pure electric vehicles. The diverse needs of car purchase and use. With the implementation of the various supporting policies for electric vehicles in Beijing, the number of pure electric vehicles in Beijing will show explosive growth.

2. Analysis of Shanghai New Energy Vehicle Market

Analysis of the Status Quo of Shanghai New Energy Vehicle Development

Over the years, Shanghai has attached great importance to the development of energy-saving and new energy vehicles. A few years ago, Tongji University undertook a major fuel cell sedan project for the 863 electric vehicle in the "10th Five-Year Plan" and a major project for energy conservation and new energy vehicles in the "Eleventh Five-Year Plan" national "863" project, and established a number of energy-saving and new energy vehicles. The R&D platform has carried out a large number of demonstration projects for energy-saving and new-energy vehicles, laying a good foundation for the promotion and application of energy-saving and new-energy vehicles.

Shanghai New Energy Vehicle Demand Forecast Analysis

In nearly a year, I worked with the Shanghai, New York, and Paris municipal governments to conduct in-depth research on how to realize the industrialization of electric vehicles in metropolitan areas. According to the survey data, 90% of local consumers are required to travel more than 75 kilometers in addition to holidays. The daily commute/learning, trivia or social leisure travel mileage requirements are within 50 kilometers, and electric vehicles can satisfy most consumers. Daily mileage requirements in addition to outings.

3. Analysis of Guangzhou New Energy Automobile Market

Analysis of the Status Quo of Guangzhou New Energy Vehicle Development

For six consecutive years, Guangzhou City has promoted the application of new energy vehicles to more than 16,000 vehicles, and all of them have exceeded their tasks. In the second phase (2013-2015), 14597 new energy vehicles were promoted and applied. The task of 10,000 vehicles accounts for 23% of the total in Guangdong Province. In the past three years, Guangzhou has arranged subsidy funds of more than 1.3 billion yuan. Among the new energy vehicles that promoted more than 16,000 vehicles, 19% of public services in the public service sector, 64% in private consumption, and 17% in corporate commuting and leasing.

Forecast Analysis of Guangzhou New Energy Vehicle Demand

In March 2016, Guangzhou took the lead in launching the “Guangzhou Manufacturing 2025 Strategic Plan” in the country, focusing on energy conservation and new energy vehicles as one of the top ten industries. The "Guangzhou Manufacturing 2025 Strategic Plan" proposes that by 2020, a complete industrial supporting system and innovation system will be formed, and self-owned brand vehicles will achieve leap-forward development with a total output value of 380 billion yuan; by 2025, the annual output of new energy vehicles will exceed 1 million units. The self-owned brand energy-saving and new energy vehicles are in line with the international advanced level, achieving a total output value of 650 billion yuan.

05, China New Energy Vehicle

Major corporate analysis

1. Shanghai Automotive Group Co., Ltd. Business Analysis

New energy vehicle technology route

The company determined the core technology route of “Three Powers”. “Three electricity” refers to the three major bottlenecks of “electric motor, electric control and battery” new energy vehicles. The leading research and development of core technology in China and the development of industrial chain are the important guarantee for the company to realize new energy industrialization. In the research and development of new energy vehicles, the company has clearly focused on hybrid power, fuel cells as the direction, and accelerated the development of alternative products. Hybrid vehicles , fuel cell vehicles , and alternative fuel vehicles have become the three major priorities of the company's new energy strategy.

New energy vehicle sales analysis

At the beginning of 2015, SAIC passenger cars harvested new energy “big orders”, signed 1,000 purchase orders with Seccon and cooperated to build charging facilities and cooperate to carry out time-sharing business. Under the favorable influence of policy support and financial services launch, SAIC's new energy vehicle sales have gradually increased. SAIC is preparing to increase the capacity of new energy vehicles from 2015, and SAIC will launch a plug-in product every year.

Analysis of the company's revenue capacity

In the first quarter of 2016, the company's operating income was 185.516 billion yuan, operating profit, total profit and net profit were 12.305 billion yuan, 13.138 billion yuan and 7.936 billion yuan respectively.

Enterprise profitability analysis

In the first quarter of 2016, the company's gross profit margin and sales profit margin were 13.73% and 7.07%, respectively; the return on net assets and total return on assets were 4.55% and 2.69% respectively; the growth rate of three expenses was 30.99%, and the company's expenses were controlled. The ability to be strengthened needs to be strengthened.

Analysis of business operation capability

In the first quarter of 2016, the company's inventory turnover rate was 3.89 times; the accounts receivable turnover rate was 6.06 times; the total asset turnover rate was 0.38 times.

New energy vehicle development plan

SAIC next five years will raise 20 billion yuan, and ultimately put more than 30 all-new type of new energy vehicles. SAIC has set a sales target – by 2020, sales of new energy vehicles will reach 600,000 units, of which 200,000 will be self-owned brands. If this goal is achieved, SAIC will occupy 15% to 20% of the market share of China's new energy vehicles.

2. Beiqi Foton Motor Co., Ltd. Business Analysis

New energy vehicle technology route

Beiqi Foton Motor Co., Ltd. established a new energy vehicle design and manufacturing industrial base in Changping Plant in 2004, and has established professional research and development design centers such as Automotive Engineering Research Institute, New Energy Vehicle Technology Center, Energy Saving and Emission Reduction Key Laboratory, Green Energy Pilot Test Laboratory. . The base has three green energy technologies in sync with the world – clean energy technology, alternative energy technology and new energy technology. At the same time, it has formed four core design and manufacturing engineering centers: hybrid, pure electric, hydrogen fuel and energy efficient engine design and manufacturing. Engineering Center.

New energy vehicle sales analysis

In 2015, Foton Motor followed the social situation and actively responded to the management of smog and development of environmentally friendly products. In addition to strict compliance with emission regulations, it also increased research and development efforts on new energy vehicles. In 2015, 4,206 new energy vehicles were sold, including: 4008 pure electric large and medium passenger cars and 198 pure electric high-end light truck logistics vehicles. The sales of new energy products increased by 141.72% year-on-year, and the company's new energy vehicles achieved leapfrog development.

Analysis of the company's revenue capacity

In the first quarter of 2016, the company realized operating income of 831,748,500 yuan, operating profit, total profit and net profit of -12,836,200 yuan, 67,799,100 yuan and 74,287,100 yuan respectively.

Enterprise profitability analysis

In the first quarter of 2016, the company's gross profit margin was 12.23%; the return on net assets and total return on assets were 0.40% and 0.10%, respectively; the three expense growth rates were 15.47%.

Analysis of corporate solvency

In the first quarter of 2016, the company's asset-liability ratio was 59.74%; the shareholder equity ratio was 39.85%; the interest multiplier was -1.74 times; the current ratio and quick ratio were 0.81 and 0.61, respectively.

New energy vehicle development plan

According to the Futian Automobile Product Upgrade Plan, during the 13th Five-Year Plan period, the latest achievements of Futian Ouhui's independent innovation and research and development of new energy technologies will be fully applied to 463 products of Futian Ouhui Bus and Futian Ouhui Environmental Equipment. The optimization and upgrading of all the products of Ouhui. The products will be comprehensively improved in terms of reliability, safety, energy saving, comfort and intelligence. At the same time, during the period of 2016-2020, Foton Ouhui plans to launch 50-60 new generation new energy bus products and 30-40 new environmental equipment products to complete the further expansion of the product line and optimize the product structure.

06, China New Energy Vehicle

Investment and financing and investment opportunity analysis

1. Analysis of investment opportunities in new energy auto industry under the Internet environment

Overview of Internet Development in 2010-2015

(I) Analysis of the growth of Internet popularization application in 2010-2015

As of December 2015, the number of netizens in China reached 688 million, and a total of 39.51 million new netizens were added throughout the year. The Internet penetration rate was 50.3%, an increase of 2.4 percentage points from the end of 2014.

(II) Analysis of the development of mobile internet in 2010-2015

In the next few years, China Mobile's online shopping will continue to grow rapidly. In 2018, the mobile online shopping market will exceed 5 trillion yuan. The mobile terminal's features such as anytime, anywhere, fragmentation, and high interaction make the mobile terminal a link to boost the online shopping market to "online + offline", "social + consumption", "PC + mobile + TV", "entertainment + consumption" Develop in the same direction, realize integrated marketing, multi-screen interaction and other modes.

2. Forecast of the development prospects of the new energy automobile industry

Analysis of the development trend of new energy automobile industry

(1) Energy-saving vehicles with obvious economic benefits will develop first

At present, energy-saving automobile technologies such as hybrids are relatively mature and are getting closer to the needs of consumers. For example, the Toyota Prius Hybrid Edition has sold more than 4 million vehicles worldwide, ranking first in energy-saving and new-energy vehicle sales. In 2012, Toyota’s Toyota Camry hybrid version sold for only 35,000 yuan more than the gasoline version, but Its fuel consumption is only 5.3L/100km. Under the background of oil price of 7 yuan/liter, it is expected to recover the extra cost of car purchase in 3-4 years.

(2) Infrastructures such as charging and replacing power stations will usher in the tide of construction

By 2020, the number of electric vehicles in the country will exceed 5 million, and the charging facility network will meet the needs of inter-city and regional pure electric vehicles to achieve large-scale commercial operations.

(3) New energy bus is still the mainstream in the short term

From the government's continuous introduction of various support policies in 2009 to the demonstration effect of the 2010 World Expo and the Guangzhou Asian Games, as well as the government's support in the field of public transport services, the sales of new energy vehicles have grown steadily. In 2015, China's new energy vehicles The sales volume was approximately 331,100 units, a year-on-year increase of 342.65%.

(4) The government official car market will also start to emerge and become one of the important demand markets.

In 2014-2016, the proportion of new energy vehicles purchased by central government agencies and government agencies and public institutions that promote the application of new energy vehicles accounted for not less than 30% of the total number of vehicles equipped with newer vehicles in the year, and the scale of application will be expanded year by year. About 8 billion yuan of market space.

Forecast of the development prospects of the new energy automobile industry

The "Guidelines for the Development of Electric Vehicle Charging Infrastructure (2015-2020)" introduced in 2015 proposes that by 2020, the number of electric vehicles in the country will exceed 5 million, including more than 200,000 electric buses and more than 300,000 electric taxis. There are more than 200,000 special vehicles for electric sanitation and logistics, and more than 4.3 million electric and private passenger vehicles.

However, judging from the sales situation of new energy vehicles in China, there is still a big gap with the sales target in 2020. From 2008 to 2015, the proportion of China's new energy vehicle sales to automobile sales increased year by year, reaching 1.3% in 2015. CIC consultants predict that by 2021, China's new energy vehicle sales will account for about 3.8% of the car sales, with sales of about 1.308 million.

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