The embargo will break the ternary battery and the compound growth rate will reach 100% in the next three years.

Recently, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology held a publicity meeting on further improving the safety supervision and application of new energy vehicles. From January 1, 2017, the application for the new catalogue of recommended models for the promotion and application of new energy vehicles will be ternary. For passenger cars with batteries, a third-party test report is required. The “Suspended ternary lithium battery bus was included in the list of recommended models for new energy vehicles promotion and application” in January this year.

The ternary battery is lifted, some people are happy and worried, but for the ternary lithium battery enterprise, it is undoubtedly "the mountains and heavy waters have no way to reconcile, and the dark flowers and flowers are another village." Winter is over, will the spring of ternary lithium batteries be far behind?

"Review of the application of the ternary battery on the bus"

(1) In January 2016, the relevant units issued the “Notice on Soliciting the Opinions of the Company on Suspension of the Recommendation on the Use of Ternary Materials Powered Lithium Ion Batteries on Commercial Vehicles”. According to the notice, it is recommended that the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology suspend the use of ternary material-powered lithium-ion batteries on electric commercial vehicles. If this recommendation is adopted, the application of ternary material-powered lithium-ion batteries in electric commercial vehicles may be excluded.

(2) On January 24, 2016, Zhang Xiangmu, Director of the Equipment Industry Department of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, said at the China Electric Vehicle Centennial Conference that the state encouraged multiple technical routes to develop together. Lithium-ion batteries include lithium iron phosphate, ternary lithium, lithium titanate, lithium nickelate and many other types. The ternary lithium battery has high specific energy and good cycle performance, and is an important development direction for lithium batteries in the future. Due to the late start of the development of ternary materials in China, the safety development and verification for passenger cars is not enough. At present, the country is considering further improving the safety technology threshold of new energy vehicle products, and organizing the risk assessment of the ternary lithium battery bus and other vehicles under the current safety standard system. Before the evaluation is completed, the ternary lithium battery bus will be suspended for the list of recommended models for the promotion of new energy vehicles.

(3) On August 12, 2016, at the Media Forum of the 100-member Summer Forum and the Electric Vehicle Safety Report, when asked whether the ternary battery was suspended or not, the vice chairman of the China Electric Vehicle 100-member Association, Ouyang Minggao, a professor at the Department of Automotive Engineering at Tsinghua University, said that relevant departments are currently developing relevant safety standards.

What is a ternary lithium battery?

According to the reporter, the full name of the ternary lithium battery is a ternary polymer lithium battery, which refers to a lithium battery using a nickel-cobalt-manganese ternary cathode material for the cathode material. This naming method is divided according to the positive electrode material of the battery, in addition to lithium cobaltate, lithium manganate, and lithium iron phosphate battery. In addition to the division according to the positive electrode material, the battery type can also be classified according to the shape, the outer material, and the electrolyte.

The main features of the ternary lithium battery are: 1. Higher energy density: Although the safety of the ternary battery is not as high as lithium iron phosphate, it can provide longer cruising range for the car and higher energy density than other batteries. . 2. The cost is lower than lithium iron phosphate. 3. Stable performance at low temperatures: Lithium iron phosphate actually has a fatal weakness, that is, poor low temperature performance, even if the current nanotechnology and carbon coating can not effectively solve this problem. According to research, a lithium iron phosphate battery with a capacity of 3,500 mAh, if it works in an environment of minus 10 degrees, will attenuate 85% of its capacity after less than 100 cycles, which is no different from scrapping. The ternary lithium battery has a low temperature performance and will only decay by 1% to 2% per month.

Comparison of related indicators of major lithium battery categories

New energy vehicle new car announcement, ternary lithium is favored

Some time ago, most of the new energy passenger vehicles that have been listed, such as Beiqi New Energy , Jianghuai, Jiangling, Chery, Zotye, etc., have begun to adopt ternary lithium batteries, while BYD still uses lithium iron phosphate batteries. However, with the change of market application trend, it is also accelerating the development of ternary lithium battery application and research. The company recently said on the investor interaction platform that in the future new passenger cars, the company will start to use three Yuan lithium battery, but also significantly increased the research and development investment in the ternary lithium battery.

According to the “Road Motor Vehicle Manufacturing Enterprise and Product Announcement” (No. 290) issued by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, a total of 159 new energy vehicle products (including chassis) were selected. Previously, more than 250 new energy vehicles were selected in each batch. For example, a total of 275 new energy vehicles were selected in the 288th batch, and 366 new energy vehicle products were selected in the 289th batch.

After interviewing the finalized passenger car companies, the reporter found that the ternary lithium battery was favored by new energy passenger cars. At least 4 of the 9 newly-appointed new energy passenger vehicles use ternary batteries. For example, Geely's two Geely pure electric cars use Shandong Hengyuan's ternary battery and Hubei Tianfeng's hybrid ternary battery; Zhengzhou Nissan Its Dongfeng brand pure electric multi-purpose passenger car uses BAK's ternary battery; SAIC's Roewe plug-in hybrid car adopts Shanghai Jiexin's ternary battery.

Whether ternary lithium is banned is a step in the country

In 2016, the power battery in the new energy automobile industry can be described as a big ups and downs. From January 2016, the passenger car ternary battery was banned. In June 2016, the fourth batch of power battery white list was released. Then, in November 2016, the power battery industry specification was required, and then the current passenger car was released. According to industry analysts, this seems to be a game of chess in the country. This four-step chess piece illustrates the country's care for the strategic industry of power lithium. Considering that the domestic ternary lithium battery was not mature at the beginning of 2016, it first took the Korean-owned enterprises out of the door by the three-way ban of passenger cars, the white list of power batteries, and the specifications of the power battery industry, which won valuable time for the development of domestic lithium battery ternary technology, and then After the technology is relatively mature, the three-way market of passenger cars will be opened, and the domestic ternary lithium battery leader will be helped to win the market cake.

The reporter was informed on a financial network that the compound growth rate of ternary lithium battery in the next three years can reach 100%. The network transmission bus subsidy increases energy density assessment, the energy density of lithium iron phosphate has reached the bottleneck, and the high energy density of ternary lithium battery is expected to get 1.2 times subsidy, which will become the first choice for passenger cars. It is estimated that by 2018, the passenger's three-way penetration rate can reach more than 50%, corresponding to the new ternary lithium battery demand of 8-10GWh, and the ternary lithium battery compound growth rate in 2016-2018 may reach 100%.

Summary: From focusing on the promotion of new energy vehicles to focusing on product safety issues, the new energy vehicle industry has shifted from the hot development in 2015 to the calm development in 2016. Although the new energy automobile industry is in a policy gap period in 2016, there is no policy guidance to slow down the entire industry. However, after this year's adjustment, the core pain points facing the entire industry can be clarified, and it is of great significance to the long-term development of the new energy automobile industry in the future.

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