A Brief Analysis of the Passenger Vehicle Market in the First Half of 2016

In recent years, the cost of China’s labor force, land, and other factors has continued to rise. This has seriously weakened the competitiveness of exporting companies. Automobile exports are facing an extremely passive situation. Vehicle imports face the influence of a new policy of parallel imports, leading to chaotic import orders. As the advanced economies are better, especially the US economy is good, China's auto parts and components exports performed very well. As the competitiveness of China’s exports declines, the economic rise in Southeast Asia and India has driven our structural exports of vehicle exports to strength. Overall, the current sea route along the Belt and Road is strong, and the land Silk Road is still in the doldrums. As the country stimulates economic and export policies, the situation of serious negative growth in exports will ease.

According to the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, from January to June 2016, China's total vehicle exports totaled 346,700 vehicles, a year-on-year decrease of 13.11%; the export value was US$5,088 million, a year-on-year decrease of 21.62%. Among the major export categories of cars, the number of cars exported was 316,100, a year-on-year decrease of 14.12%; the number of trucks exported was 88,700, a year-on-year decrease of 25.44%; and the number of passenger car exports was 51,800, a year-on-year decrease of 25.14%. The three major categories of automobile varieties have accumulated 276,600 vehicles, accounting for 79.78% of the total automobile exports. From January to June, the accumulative export value of auto parts was USD 29.340 billion, which was a decrease of 4.57% year-on-year, and the decline was slightly larger than the same period of last year. From January to June, the cumulative export of motorcycles was 3,733,000 vehicles, which was a year-on-year decrease of 4.66%; the cumulative export volume was 2.064 billion US dollars, a year-on-year decrease of 8.97%.

In the first half of 2016, total light vehicle sales in the United States increased by 1.4% year-on-year to 8,642,284 units. The improvement of fuel economy and the increase in the sales intensity of car companies are good factors for U.S. light vehicles. In addition, from the economic environment of the United States, interest rates have fallen to historical lows, gasoline prices have remained low, consumer wages have risen, and employment has almost saturated. These factors will drive the US auto market to continue its strong sales in the second half of 2016.

In the first half of 2016, sales of the European passenger vehicle market rose by 9.1% year-on-year to 8,090,870 units, of which the top three markets, Germany, France and Italy, all exceeded one million units, and both achieved growth.

The passenger vehicle market in Germany achieved a continuous rise for five months. In the first half of 2016, sales reached 1,733,839 units, which was a year-on-year increase of 7.1%. In the first half of this year, passenger cars in France and Italy increased 8.3% and 19.2% year-on-year to 1,102,429 units and 1,041,854 units respectively.

The Japanese passenger car market achieved 1,423,341 units of sales in the first half of 2016. In the same period last year, it sold 1,404,193 passenger vehicles, a slight increase of 1.4% year-on-year.

Among the five BRICS countries, sales of passenger cars in China only increased in the first half of this year. In the first six months of this year, sales reached 10,652,935 units, which is the only country whose sales exceeded 10 million units, and sales rose compared with the same period of last year. 11.6%. In the first six months of this year, the passenger car market has achieved sales growth in different ranges. Among them, sales volume in June increased by 20.6% year-on-year, and the increase rate hit a record high this year.

In the first half of this year, Brazil’s sales of passenger vehicles achieved 810,681 vehicles, but compared with the same period last year, a 24.7% decline occurred. Russia also saw double-digit declines in light vehicle sales in the first half of this year, with sales down 14.1% year-on-year to 672,140 units. Many analysts believe that the Russian economy has fallen to a low point. Ukrainian disputes led to economic sanctions imposed on Russia by the West and low crude oil prices led to the economic crisis, resulting in the country’s economic paralysis and the development of the automotive industry. In addition, sales in India and South Africa fell by 1.9% and 9.9% respectively year-over-year to 1,376,705 vehicles and 272,461 vehicles.

In other emerging markets, the Mexican market performed well. New car sales in the first half of 2016 amounted to 721,856 units, a year-on-year increase of 18.4%.

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